印度鋼鐵應(yīng)用商協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)尼庫(kù)尼·圖拉克西亞：美國(guó)濫施關(guān)稅將“自傷”，我們只需靜觀其變

圖為尼庫(kù)尼·圖拉克西亞接受《中國(guó)冶金報(bào)》記者獨(dú)家專訪 （舒禮煥/攝)

“美國(guó)大面積加征關(guān)稅非常不合理，這對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)造成很大創(chuàng)傷。從全球來(lái)看，沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)國(guó)家可以完全獨(dú)立于其他國(guó)家，相信美國(guó)最終會(huì)意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)并做出調(diào)整?！?月21日，印度鋼鐵應(yīng)用商協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)Nikunj Turakhia（尼庫(kù)尼·圖拉克西亞）在接受《中國(guó)冶金報(bào)》記者獨(dú)家專訪時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào)，“目前只需靜觀其變，時(shí)間會(huì)證明很多東西?！?/span>

“希望中國(guó)鋼企深度融入印度的發(fā)展”

世界鋼協(xié)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年，中國(guó)粗鋼產(chǎn)量10.05億噸，同比下降1.7%；印度粗鋼產(chǎn)量1.49億噸，同比增長(zhǎng)6.3%，分列全球產(chǎn)鋼國(guó)第一、二位。

尼庫(kù)尼·圖拉克西亞認(rèn)為，世界第一、第二兩大國(guó)之間開(kāi)展合作很有必要，也順理成章?！爱?dāng)前，印度鋼鐵工業(yè)發(fā)展水平與中國(guó)鋼鐵存在較大差距，需要在產(chǎn)品技術(shù)、成本節(jié)約、生產(chǎn)效率等多方面向中國(guó)學(xué)習(xí)，也希望中國(guó)鋼鐵企業(yè)能深度融入到印度的發(fā)展中來(lái)?！彼f(shuō)。

據(jù)介紹，2024-2025財(cái)年（2024年4月1日到2025年3月31日?），印度GDP總量達(dá)到3.89萬(wàn)億美元，同比增長(zhǎng)6.7%，相較于2013-2014財(cái)年的1.86萬(wàn)億美元，已實(shí)現(xiàn)翻番。目前，印度政府提出5萬(wàn)億美元GDP發(fā)展目標(biāo)，并通過(guò)制定數(shù)字印度計(jì)劃、“印度制造”計(jì)劃等系列舉措，正加速實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。特別是在鐵路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資方面，印度2024-2025財(cái)年已經(jīng)達(dá)到320億美元，相較于2014年（36.1億美元）增長(zhǎng)近8倍。印度經(jīng)濟(jì)未來(lái)有很好的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。

“希望中國(guó)鋼鐵企業(yè)積極參與印度的發(fā)展，多開(kāi)展一些除鋼鐵貿(mào)易以外的合作?！彼貏e強(qiáng)調(diào)并建議，“可以在印度建設(shè)海外倉(cāng)、建工廠、投資高端制造業(yè)等，進(jìn)行更多元的深度合作，也可以將一部分產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移至印度，這也是規(guī)避關(guān)稅風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的好辦法?！彼f(shuō)道。

在他看來(lái)，中國(guó)鋼鐵企業(yè)當(dāng)前更多是“站在門(mén)外”進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和可行性評(píng)估。而日韓與印度簽署有自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，享受著免稅準(zhǔn)入，因此在印度開(kāi)展了更多投資。

“歐盟碳關(guān)稅未來(lái)必定會(huì)延期”

“雖然印度也進(jìn)行了一些嘗試，但生產(chǎn)綠鋼沒(méi)有那么容易，并且征收碳關(guān)稅將把每個(gè)國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)成本進(jìn)一步增加50美元/噸~100美元/噸，沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)國(guó)家真正準(zhǔn)備好如何應(yīng)對(duì)?！蹦釒?kù)尼·圖拉克西亞表示。

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）4月22日發(fā)布最新一期《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》，將全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期從3.3%大幅下調(diào)至2.8%，主因是美國(guó)單邊加征關(guān)稅引發(fā)貿(mào)易政策不確定性加劇。尼庫(kù)尼·圖拉克西亞強(qiáng)調(diào)，當(dāng)前，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)復(fù)雜嚴(yán)峻，鋼鐵行業(yè)也面臨需求下滑的困境，這一現(xiàn)狀并不會(huì)很快改善，通過(guò)碳關(guān)稅為行業(yè)發(fā)展增加難度的做法并不可取。“歐盟碳關(guān)稅未來(lái)必定會(huì)延期，因此不必對(duì)此有太多擔(dān)心。”他篤定道。

印度政府在2017年5月份發(fā)布的擴(kuò)大鋼鐵產(chǎn)能的遠(yuǎn)景規(guī)劃《國(guó)家鋼鐵政策(2017)》顯示，到2030-2031財(cái)年，印度計(jì)劃將粗鋼產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)大至3億噸。近日，印度鋼鐵部秘書(shū)桑迪普·龐德里克（Sandeep Poundrik）表示，印度有信心達(dá)成3億噸產(chǎn)能目標(biāo)，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)消費(fèi)量將快速增長(zhǎng)。公開(kāi)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度2021-2023年的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速穩(wěn)居世界前列。面對(duì)快速增長(zhǎng)的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的壓力，印度鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)將如何平衡？

尼庫(kù)尼·圖拉克西亞直言：“我們不會(huì)刻意去做平衡，依然會(huì)優(yōu)先保證生產(chǎn)，滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需求?！痹谒磥?lái)，歐洲國(guó)家在發(fā)展時(shí)期也進(jìn)行了大量碳排放，但現(xiàn)在要求其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家縮減碳排放，這是極為不公平的。同時(shí)，在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的時(shí)候，“碳”話題被更多地提及，而這兩年經(jīng)濟(jì)并不好，國(guó)際上談?wù)摰膹?qiáng)度正在減弱，這是一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)的過(guò)程。

“3億噸產(chǎn)能計(jì)劃并不是根本目的，主要視印度經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和國(guó)內(nèi)需求情況而定。”他補(bǔ)充道。

—— 英文版 ——

Nikunj Turakhia, President of the Steel Users Federation Of India：

The US' imposition of tariffs will "hurt itself", and we just need to wait and see.

"Large-scale tariff hikes by the United States are highly unreasonable and will cause significant damage to its own economy. From a global perspective, no country can be completely independent of others. I believe the United States will eventually realize this and make adjustments." On April 21, Nikunj Turakhia, president of the Indian Steel Application Association, emphasized in an exclusive interview with China Metallurgical News, "At present, we just need to wait and see. Time will prove many things."

"Hope Chinese steel enterprises deeply integrate into India's development"

According to the World Steel Association's statistics, in 2024, China's crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; India's crude steel output was 149 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, ranking first and second globally respectively.

Nikunj Turakhia believes that cooperation between the world's top two steel producers is necessary and logical. "Currently, there is a significant gap between India's steel industry development level and that of China. India needs to learn from China in many aspects such as product technology, cost savings, and production efficiency. We also hope that Chinese steel enterprises can deeply integrate into India's development," he said.

It is reported that in the fiscal year 2024-2025 (April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025), India's GDP reached 3.89 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Compared with 1.86 trillion US dollars in the fiscal year 2013-2014, it has doubled. Currently, the Indian government has set a GDP target of 5 trillion US dollars and is accelerating the realization of this goal through a series of measures such as the Digital India initiative and the "Make in India" program. Especially in terms of railway infrastructure investment, it has reached 32 billion US dollars in the fiscal year 2024-2025, an increase of nearly eight times compared to 3.61 billion US dollars in 2014. India's economy has a good growth outlook in the future.

"Hope Chinese steel enterprises participate in India's development and carry out more cooperation beyond steel trade," he emphasized. "It is suggested that they can build overseas warehouses, set up factories, invest in high-end manufacturing, etc., to carry out more diversified and in-depth cooperation. They can also transfer part of their production capacity to India, which is also a good way to avoid tariff risks," he said.

In his view, Chinese steel enterprises are currently more "standing outside" to assess risks and feasibility. While Japan and South Korea have signed free trade agreements with India and enjoy duty-free access, they have carried out more investments in India.

"The EU carbon tariff will definitely be extended in the future"

"Although India has made some attempts, it is not that easy to produce green steel. Moreover, the imposition of carbon tariffs will increase production costs by about 50 to 100 US dollars per ton for every country. No country is truly prepared for how to deal with this." he added.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report on April 22, significantly lowering the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, mainly due to the uncertainty in trade policies caused by the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States. Nikunj Turakhia emphasized that the current global economic situation is complex and severe, and the steel industry is also facing the predicament of declining demand. This situation will not improve quickly, and it is not advisable to increase the difficulty for the industry's development through carbon tariffs. "The EU carbon tariff will definitely be extended in the future, so there is no need to worry too much about it," he said confidently.

The Indian government's long-term plan for expanding steel production, the National Steel Policy (2017), released in May 2017, aims to increase crude steel production capacity to 300 million tons by the fiscal year 2030-2031. Recently, Sandeep Poundrik, the secretary of the Indian Ministry of Steel, stated that India is confident of achieving the 300 million tons capacity target because it is expected that consumption will grow rapidly. Public data shows that India's steel production growth rate has been among the world's top in 2021-2023. Facing the rapid growth of steel production and the pressure of low-carbon transformation, how will the Indian steel industry balance these factors?

Nikunj Turakhia said straightforwardly, "We will not deliberately try to balance. We will still prioritize production to meet the demands of economic development." In his view, European countries also emitted a large amount of carbon during their development periods, but now asking other developing countries to reduce carbon emissions is extremely unfair. At the same time, the "carbon" topic is more frequently discussed during economic prosperity, but in the past two years when the economy has not been good, the intensity of international discussions has weakened. This is a dynamic process.

"The 300 million tons capacity plan is not the ultimate goal. It mainly depends on India's economic development situation and domestic demand," he added.

記者 | 樊三彩

來(lái)源 | 中國(guó)冶金報(bào)

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